Nicholas Pepper
Scientific Revolutions
Final Paper
11-7-11
“Were The Hobbits Right?”
“Environmental degradation, overpopulation, refugees, narcotics, terrorism, world crime movements, and organized crime are worldwide problems that don't stop at a nation's borders.”
~Warren Christopher~
In the past 100 years we have seen changes in our technology and ways of life beyond the belief of most former cultural forecasters, but far less then some believed as well. When it comes down to it though I would say we only have about ten solid years of development left before we begin tracking backwards and falling into what can be called the great reskilling. Although we have come so far and technology seems to create newer technology every day the natural resources around us are disappearing, and the times are changing dramatically. Both will play a huge roll in the future of our civilization. It is safe to say most of the developments we see will be in an attempt to go as green as possible, and reverse harmful effects we have had on our planet and atmosphere.
As an environmental policy major we spend the majority of time studying current environmental issues, that unfortunately a lot of people seem to know nothing about. Maybe they are just blissfully ignorant t the issues, because they are having no direct effects on people in the U.S. Yet. The biggest crisis we will face will be the lack of oil available to us. You see oil runs on essential a bell curve distribution, referred to as the peak oil theory. Being a generally oil dependent world this is gonna create massive problems in our future as we run out. We will have to find new ways to heat our houses, to power our vehicles, to create oil based paint, even find something new to help produce our clothing. Thats right oil is used in a lot more than we think and is a very viable resource, but its supply is limited and we are nearing that limit available to us.
As we step into the future, due to this oil crisis you will see people all over the world doing what they can in order to generate power and electricity as greenly and sustainably as possible. Gas powered generators will be obsolete at this time and the dangers of nuclear reactors will have been realized. Factories will be closed down to their pollutants and high energy use. I also believe that electro magnetism will be one of the most utilized forms energy. We find all sorts of problems with todays food supply as well with how far it travels and the harmful growth hormones, chemicals and pesticides that most commercial farms utilize. What does all of this mean though, and how are we going to deal with these problems you ask? Well sit right back and we can begin.
Oil being the most threatening issue, and most likely to influence change is our starting point. As oil becomes gradually more and more scarce, and harder to attain every day, oil companies will start running cost benefit analyses on their oil extraction costs, and find that they either need to just stop the extractions and save the money, or raise their prices in order to supplement the raising costs to extract the oil. It isn't hard to guess that of courses the prices will go up before they stop production, as we have clearly already seen happen. The main issues that arises with this is we ship nearly everything we have available to using planes, boats and trucks, that all run on fuel derived from the crude oil we harvest. As the fuel prices rise the cost to ship these things will rise, and therefore the cost to buy them increases. This is the case for everything though, our booth brothers milk, our lettuce, our apples, our electronics, our clothing, all of it.(endoil.org) At this point with the ways the world economy is people aren’t gonna be able to afford the standard costs of living they were formerly accustomed to. The sad part is this is gonna come as a shock to a lot of people, and therefore create panic and therefore a crisis.
As this crisis sets in, most people will be at a loss of what to do and how to handle the issue at hand. Luckily there are already people taking step towards easing into this problem of no oil, by creating proposed solutions such as transition towns, and CSA's or community supported agriculture, and even farmers markets. Even more so though you will see what can be referred to as relocalization, which of course plays into the great reskilling. You see instead of shipping all of these goods people are gonna become more self sufficient and revert to outdated skills such as simple craft work and farming, as you see these things happen you will see them grow in number and eventually find localized shops and food production in every community. Transition towns are probably the best attempt at addressing these problems at hand. “These communities have started up projects in areas of food, transport, energy, education, housing, waste, arts etc. as small-scale local responses to the global challenges of climate change, economic hardship and shrinking supplies of cheap energy. Together, these small-scale responses make up something much bigger, and help show the way forward for governments, business and the rest of us.”(transition.org) This means that things will no longer have to be shipped, and therefore eliminating the cost of delivering all of the products that we can so easily create ourselves therefore cutting down the cost of these goods. This will then create a reverse in price margin, and will draw business away from the large chain companies such as Walmart and Sears, therefore relocalizing our economies and reverting our social system, back to an early twentieth century, late nineteenth century style of living.
CSA's will be the most popular form of farming in the future, because organic CSA's are far more sustainable and eco friendly then major commercial farms, and is an extremely viable why to work the great “reskilling” into the lives of community members involved in the CSA. There are two types of CSA's. CSA is an acronym for both of them. They stand for Crop Share Alliance, and Community Supported Agriculture. Both are great ways of getting organically grown meat and vegetables while supporting your local economy and farmers. In a world that has turned to industrialization and mass production, we need to find ways to limit our use of earths natural resources, for we are running out of them, and CSA's are a great way to take a positive step in the right direction.
You see this type of animal powered agriculture all the time and utilization of CSA's a lot now already, and this is because the technology in the farming industries has become dangerous for and harmful to the environment and our economy. Why go outside of your community and pay the extra money to get the milk or whatever it may be imported. Local economies also suffer greatly from this, because it is common sense that the more we import from other countries the more money that leaves our local economy. In todays day and age it seems as though farms are focusing on growing greater and lager crops, and therefore need chemical aid to keep such large crops healthy, and crops shouldn’t be grown with harmful chemicals and growth hormones that we later ingest. Lastly it is an important skill to know how to cultivate and work with the land around you when it comes down to it people really should learn the skills involved with cultivating land.
Of course though realistically we will never eliminate long distance travel, it is far too appealing, and has been occurring for nearly all of history. Most of this travel in the future though will take place through electro magnetic bullet trains. These trains are able to run off of electricity, which can easily be renewed in a green manner. Whether that strategy be wind energy, solar energy or water turbine energy, the options of green power supply are immense. “High-speed Maglev vehicles are lifted off their guideway and thus move more smoothly, quietly and require less maintenance than wheeled mass transit systems – regardless of speed. This non-reliance on friction also means that acceleration and deceleration can far surpass that of existing forms of transport. The power needed for levitation is not a particularly large percentage of the overall energy consumption; most of the power used is needed to overcome air resistance (drag), as with any other high-speed form of transport.
The highest recorded speed of a Maglev train is 581km/h (361mph), achieved in Japan by the CJR's MLX01 superconducting Maglev in 2003,[1] 6km/h (3.7mph) faster than the conventional TGV wheel-rail speed record.” (Wikipedia) That sounds pretty fast and efficient to me.
Heating our homes is another challenge we will face, and there are two viable solutions to addressing this problem of not being able to heat our homes with oil. The two solutions at hand consist of geothermal heating for homes and even larger buildings such as our own Perry Hall, we can also use wood burning stoves, which realistically is still in large use today. “Circulating fireplaces have heat circulation ducts built into the masonry fireplace. These pull air from the room, circulate it around a metal firebox and send it back, warmed, into the room. Some of these units have built-in fans to increase the flow of air and heat. Made of metal, circulating fireplaces warm quickly and cool rapidly once the fire is extinguished.”(Consumerenergycenter.org). Wood stoves are great, because wood is a completely renewable resource, if properly managed. Geothermal is interesting, “Geothermal heating is the direct use of geothermal energy for heating applications. Humans have taken advantage of geothermal heat this way since the Paleolithic era. Approximately seventy countries made direct use of a total of 270 PJ of geothermal heating in 2004. As of 2007, 28 GW of geothermal heating capacity is installed around the world, satisfying 0.07% of global primary energy consumption.[1] Thermal efficiency is high since no energy conversion is needed”(Wikipedia)
Don't get me wrong though, this won't be the end of science or development it will just be a small set back, I believe one hundred percent that there will be scientists working daily in their labs and at their homes to develop alternative useable fuel sources. What will be that fuel source? Well in this time you will find that the largest crop that will be produced will be hemp. This will not be for use as a drug though. It is proven that hemp is one of the most useful crops in the world, the fibers can be woven into thread, the oils can be extracted and used for the clothing, in oil burning lamps and even as a fuel source. The fibers can also be used to create paper, and can also be used to smoke for pain and therapeutic reasons. It is one of the most useful crops in the world. Possibly there will be no fuel for our vehicles, or at least very minimal fuel used. Recently they have found ways to defy gravity using magnets and extremely cold temperatures. Perhaps this will be what controls are traveling ability, floating with small amounts of hemp oil fuel to propel the vehicles. This is fairly far off after the recession to simple life though unfortunately.
The communities that we live in will be small tight knit communities where everybody has to pull their weight in order for the community to function and survive. The cities we see today will be largely abandoned and what parts aren't will be slums the factories that were once lived in will be condemned, and share the occupation of varmint, homeless and their decrepit waste. The villages or communities you see people living in will be much like that of hobbit holes that J. R. R.Tolkien tells about in his story “The Hobbit”, and of course in the trilogy “The Lord of the Rings” very minimally invasive and harmful to our environments and surroundings. With lush large farms on the available land above our hobbit hole communities. The farms will be tilled, planted and harvested by human and animal power, once again because the oil will be so scarce that running farm equipment will be out of the question. On top of the hills are home are found in will not only be farms for food, but wind and solar farms as well. These wind and solar farms will be our means of producing electricity for the community. Just as all other communities will have as well. In coastal communities, you may find in a addition to just the solar and wind production, that they will be using tidal turbines as well, and communities on rivers may create dams with internal turbines to create energy. All other forms of energy production will be outdated and no longer utilized.
Wars will still be fought based on religious beliefs in the names of gods nobody has ever witnessed, even though stated in most religious readings, “thou shalt not kill.” Ironic don't you think? Weapons I think will be the only thing that develops with us through time unfortunately. This is the case, because big nations have to remain big, and keep up their “reputations” per say. In fifty years though bullets will be obsolete. And people will shoot lasers and plasma rays. Soldiers will no longer be involved in the fight, but instead be safe behind the screen of a computer where they can control land, air and water droids to fight their battles for them, much like the unmanned aircrafts we have today. This will only create more war though until eventually we learn to live together as a global community and not just belonging to our country of origin.
Renewable energy will become the focus of many people and governments of this time period, renewable energy is cleaner, more healthy for the environment and renewable, so we can't run out of it. The technology used to harvest this power will consist of renewable wind energy, solar energy, and turbine powered generators. Renewable wind energy will be harvested through the means of wind turbines, placed in high wind ares, such as coastlines or atop of our hobbit home hills. Solar energy will be the most utilized form of renewable energy, because it is the most efficient and energy not used as harvested can just be stored on a standard grid power energy source. Last but not least we will utilize turbine powered generators, such as dams on rivers with turbines in them spun by the force of the current, or tidal turbines that spin and generate electricity with tides.
In the end, you find that these ideas are really not too far out there on the spectrum of what could be considered, well outrageous, and sits a bit more on the side of a realist idea. It is true that the earth is heading for a major energy and oil crisis if we don't find an alternate fuel source soon. Oil will be the root cause of the problems we face in the future, and it along with the governments for not addressing the problem will be at fault for the transformation we undergo. It will begin with the raising of oil prices which will then translate to the prices of anything that is shipped, therefore elevating the cost of living. As the cost of living goes up everything will once again become localized. The communities we will live in will be similar to those of the hobbits that J.R.R. Tolkien invented in his books. Renewable energy will be a large focus with great utilization. As pointed out before the only form of technology that won't be affected by the set back will be that of weaponry. I mean I guess maybe it is a little bit “out there” but this truly is the direction I believe the earth is traveling in.
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